大新料恆指上半年有望重上20,500點
大新銀行首席經濟及策略師溫嘉煒預計,恆指短期會在16,000點至18,000點區間波動。若內地經濟回穩,加上美聯儲局如暗示考慮提早減息,恆指上半年有望重上20,500點。
他指,聯儲局預期今年可能調頭減息,內地有望推出更多措施穩定經濟,或有助紓緩港股估值的下行壓力。恆生指數估值吸引,預測市盈率一度跌至接近十年平均3個標準差低位。
對於政府研引入資本增值稅,他指,相信屆時會有不同形式寬免,例如自住物業免徵收。由於香港奉行低稅制,若果股票引入資本增值稅,會造成很大變化,視乎政府如何在執行層面上作調整減輕對本地居民和投資者影響。
另外,大新經濟研究將內地全年經濟增長或放緩至 4.8%,而人民銀行或有機會在第一季再度減息或降準。
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