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惠譽評級:中國銀行業近期壓力測試突顯資本壓力攀升
惠譽評級表示,近期針對中資銀行的壓力測試顯示,包括部分國內系統重要性銀行(D-SIB)在內的整個銀行業持續面臨資本壓力,不過各銀行抵禦外部衝擊的能力存在顯著差異。惠譽預期,今年實力較弱的中小型銀行將加快風險處置,同時銀行業將更穩妥地推進金融體系改革,以加強集中監管及降低系統性風險。 惠譽評級指,此次壓力測試結果顯示,經濟溫和下行情景下,十九家國內系統重要性銀行的平均資本充足率將從2022年末16.3%的水平降至2025年末的14.5%。資本水平惡化程度略高於去年的宏觀情景壓力測試結果,去年測試結果顯示,十九家國內系統重要性銀行的平均資本充足率從2021年末的16.1%降至2024年末的14.8%。此次壓力測試採用的經濟預測假設比往年更為悲觀,這或許表明中國經濟面臨的下行風險仍然存在。 惠譽評級表示,此次壓力測試突顯銀行體系面對重大衝擊的脆弱性,進一步印證惠譽預測金融改革不太可能發生逆轉,信貸規模亦不太可能大範圍大幅增長,因為這可能進一步削弱銀行業的損失吸收能力,影響金融體系的整體穩定性。 惠譽預期,政府將繼續推行有針對性的貨幣及信貸政策,引導信貸資源向重要戰略性行業傾斜,維持金融體系的穩定性及推進中小型銀行的風險處置仍將是政府的關注重點。(ca/cy) ~
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