《大行報告》大摩升信置(00083.HK)及九置(01997.HK)至「增持」 料長實集團(01113.HK)及恆隆地產(00101.HK)去年派息持平
摩根士丹利發表報告指,去年下半年利率高企及宏觀經濟疲弱,令本港樓市趨勢緩和,預期今年情況持續,估計今年住宅樓價跌10%、零售租金升3%、寫字樓租金跌5%,偏好零售敞口佔比較大的公司,多於寫字樓及住宅,同時偏好淨現金公司,例如長實集團(01113.HK)及信置(00083.HK),多於高負債公司。若果利率回落速度較預期快,相信房地產信託(REITs)及發展商將會受惠。
大摩將信置評級由「與大市同步」升至「增持」,認為公司在住宅市場下行周期中,有較佳定位。其強勁的淨現金支持較高的利息收入、派息增長及土地儲備回補。另外亦將九龍倉置業(01997.HK)評級由「與大市同步」升至「增持」,因為該行較為偏好零售業務。該行調整部分地產股目標價,引用較大的資產淨值折讓,以反映樓市下行周期的影響(最新目標價詳見另文)。
大摩預期,長實及恆隆地產(00101.HK)去年每股派息持平,並下調九置、置富產業信託(00778.HK)、冠君產業信託(02778.HK)及新地(00016.HK)的派息預測,以反映利息開支上升。該行認為,上述公司每股派息額可能下跌,因為派息額是基於固定的派息比率計算。
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