大新:本港去年11月零售銷售受惠低基數 惟內地旅客消費模式轉變或帶來抑制
大新銀行首席經濟及策略師溫嘉煒稱,香港去年11月零售銷售貨值按年升15.9%,升幅為四個月以來最大,高過市場預期的11.6%及該行預期的14.2%。銷售值342億元,為六個月高位。各分類消費均有改善,11月奢侈品零售銷售按年升幅擴大至近61%,遠高於10月的27.5%升幅;衣履相關消費升幅亦顯著擴大至接近五成,較10月的25%升幅倍增;百貨公司及其他消費品的升幅亦有擴大。另外,耐用消費品及超級市場銷售跌幅有所收窄,主要由於電器及其他消費品由跌轉升,以及傢具等產品跌幅收窄所致。
該行認為,本港去年11月零售銷售升幅擴大,主要由於訪港內地旅客持續回升,對奢侈品及服裝需求相應增加,而前年同期內地則仍未全面恢復通關,導致基數較低所致。本港失業率維持歷史低水平,對整體零售業或會帶來支持,不過內地旅客訪港消費模式轉變,可能削弱旅遊業對本港零售業的貢獻,而本港資產市場表現疲弱,市民短期內對大額消費可能會保持審慎。該行估計,2024年零售銷售按年增長或回落至個位數。
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