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瑞銀料中國今年GDP增長4.4% 內房仍是經濟最大下行風險
阿思達克 01-04 13:41
瑞銀高級中國經濟學家張寧預料,中國今年經濟增長達4.4%,因低基數效應逐漸消退,料今年增長整體放緩,並提出四大關鍵因素,包括內房下行周期、消費復甦、政策支援及出口活動。 他提到,內地消費活動持續復甦且緩慢,目前線下活動已回到正常,認為政府未來僅會推出較溫和的利好消費政策,而大規模政策的機會則較低,整體市場復甦道路仍遙遠。 他續指,內房仍是內地經濟最大的下行風險,即使今年銷售持續復甦,但仍錄得少許跌幅,又認為政策放寬有助加速刺激房屋銷售,未來需要推出更多政策支援,以助改善發展商財務狀況。相反,若內房復甦進度不如預期,內地經濟或有機會低於4%增長。 另外,他預料,央行今年將會降準及減息1至2次,料降準幅度為25至50個基點,而減息幅度預期為10至20個基點。
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