《大行報告》瑞銀升中國海外(00688.HK)及龍湖(00960.HK)評級至「買入」 下調目標價
瑞銀發表研究報告指,由於城中村改造和保障性住房可能是當前去庫存和去槓桿週期的解決方法,對中國房地產行業的看法變得更加樂觀。該行估計,城中村改造可能貢獻全國新房銷售的5%,而保障性房屋可用於協調住房供應,以緩解發展商或屋主進一步降價的影響。該行將今年房地產銷售和新開工按年增速從-10%上調至-7%,但維持今年竣工總建築面積下降3%的預測。該行將中國海外(00688.HK)及龍湖(00960.HK)的評級由「中性」上調至「買入」,惟目標價分別由18.6元降至17.8元,及由21元下調至18.5元。
該行表示,城中村改造和保障性住房的主要目標是一線及二線城市,潛在的房地產銷售復甦似乎有限,而低線城市的房地產市場或仍面臨挑戰。該行相信,在一線及二線城市中經營並有能力將土地儲備重新調整的發展商商或能受惠。從長遠來看,預期發展商的潛在市場可能會縮小,料每年合約銷售上限為3,000億元人民幣。
該行提出,由於中國海外在一線及二線城市有高度發展,因此已取代越秀地產(00123.HK)成為行業首選之一,並繼續看好華潤置地(01109.HK)。
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