《大行報告》瑞銀:增加24小時通關口岸對港零售和酒店業影響負面
對於特區政府擬在特別節日增加24小時通關口岸,瑞銀髮表報告指,相信措施會爲香港零售和酒店(旅遊)業帶來負面影響,因爲本地消費持續外流,以及大陸過夜遊客減少。不過,由於基數較低,該行預期香港零售銷售在2023年11月和12月仍將實現正增長,但2024年則可能會出現負增長。
該行引述數據顯示,去年10月份香港居民陸路離境555萬人及假設人均消費500至1,000港元,估計10月份約有28億至56億港元的本地消費流入中國內地,佔香港整體零售額8%至16%。同一時間,日本政府數據顯示,港人第三季在日本消費70億港元,佔香港整體零售額7%。相反,10月份內地訪港旅客只恢復至2018年的60%水平。然而,去年上半年即日離境的內地訪客人均消費1,345港元,較2019年同期減少40%;過夜內地訪客消費(不包括酒店)則增加17%至5,962元。
該行相信,新措施將會對零售收租股和酒店相關股帶來長期負面影響,在該行覆蓋股份中,九龍倉置業(01997.HK)、希慎(00014.HK)和領展(00823.HK)面對最大挑戰。
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