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《大行報告》海通國際今年港股展望:多周期共振拐點 科技應運而生
阿思達克 01-02 09:53
海通國際發表研究報告分析中國經濟周期,認為目前處於第五輪周期的蕭條期末期,蕭條期間實質GDP已經歷了兩次下台階,從2010至14年的8%左右、下降至2015至19年的約6%、至目前的約5%。然而局部衝突和經濟的再次下滑卻是黎明前的黑暗,預兆蕭條期即將結束。展望今年港股,該行認為資訊科技週期將在今年進入回升期,並於十年後開啟康波週期第六波進入AI時代。中國在第六波週期中,是主導國還是追趕國,取決於未來十年中國的人工智慧技術發展。 該行表示,2024至2043年中國將轉為九紫火運,對應中國也將在人工智慧技術上達到領先水準。結合康波週期和技術趨勢,該行看好人工智慧相關硬體以及應用(半導體、機械人、無人駕駛、XR)、新能源(新能源車、電池及新材料、光伏、氫能、核融合)、文化復興(寺廟文化、傳統文化)、醫藥(減肥藥等創新藥)、甚至宇宙探索(衛星、火箭)。該行表示,去年A股顯著跑輸全球其他主要市場,中國再次強調加強宏觀調控力度,並推出支援科技政策。該行料股市於明年很有可能實現股市估值修復。
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