《大行報告》瑞銀降新世界(00017.HK)目標價至12.8元 負面因素大部分已反映
瑞銀發表報告,相信市場對新世界(00017.HK)現金狀況的擔憂應該會有所緩解,因為估計其出售新創建(00659.HK)所得的180億元收益和230億元的手頭自由現金,應足以支付2024財年的到期債券及相關資本支出和費用。
該行估計,出售新創建可能會導致15億元的經常性股息收入損失,因此降低新世界利息和股息支付的能見度。該行預測其2024至2025財年的每股派息將從2023財年的0.76元(不包括特別息)下調至0.6元。
該股目前交易價格反映68%的資產淨值折讓,與2004或2011年供股時的低點大致相同。因此該行認為市場已經對新世界高資產負債率、盈利表現和股息削減作定價。
該行認為,近期控股股東的回購應能支持股價。目前新世界在香港擁有1,640萬平方呎的農地儲備,雖然加快收回農地的速度可以略微改善資本結構,但不足以扭轉市場對其資產負債率相對高於其他香港地產商的看法。即使假定其所有農地儲備都按每平方呎農地賠償1,267元計算,淨資產負債率也只會從目前的83%下降到65%。該行下調新世界2023至25年盈測,目標價由20.4元降至12.8元,維持評級「中性」。
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