You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
惠理料中國經濟明年次季開始復甦 對香港市場續持審慎態度
阿思達克 12-18 12:59
惠理投資董事兼多元資產投資主管鍾慧欣表示,由於通脹數據下降及部分聯儲局成員的鴿派言論令減息預期升溫,市場轉為非常看好後市,10年期美國國債收益率在數週內由5%大幅下降至約4.2%。目前的市場定價預計2024年將減息1.275%。儘管惠理投資認為這種預期過於樂觀,但其推動美國股票及債券上升。升勢最初由短倉平倉活動帶動,現在已擴展至散戶參與,並應有進一步空間在假日旺季期間延續。 中國方面,儘管經濟數據仍然疲弱,但政府釋出明確的政策支持信號。市場正在等待中央經濟工作會議發出更多信號,該會議或會在12月較後時間舉行。由於第三季盈利欠佳及盈利指引下調,多間企業遭市場嚴厲拋售。然而,市場形勢最終將從悲觀的投資情緒及部署中改變。鑑於比較基礎更為利好,惠理投資的經濟模型顯示中國經濟將在明年第二季開始復甦。 由於消費持續低迷,香港經濟仍然疲弱。面對流動性緊張及資金持續流出的環境,惠理投資對香港市場繼續抱持審慎態度,但美國國債收益率下降有助緩解部分壓力。 中國主權基金旗下單位中央匯金繼續在市場買入ETF。然而,由於經濟復甦不平均,加上外資參與度較低,市場情緒仍然低迷。房地產銷售持續收縮,需求仍然低迷。美元走弱帶動人民幣走強,而寬鬆的實際金融環境為市場提供一定支持。然而,由於盈利預測持續下調,市場情緒仍然疲弱。外國投資者幾乎完全撤走今年較早時流入A股市場的資金,低配程度達到極端水平。投資者正觀望中央工作會議發出的信號。 由於投資者目前預計將迎來「金髮女孩」的最佳環境,並預計明年將在通脹回落及軟著陸的情況下大幅減息,美國市場將維持上行趨勢。此外,美國國債收益率下降及美元走弱使亞洲股市的環境變得有利。其中,台灣及韓國的科技行業繼續因美國科技市場的動力及美國國債收益率下降而受惠。韓國出口於11月份按年增加7.8%,反映出口有觸底跡象,尤其是在電子硬件行業。由於宏觀環境及國內消費強勁,印度亦借助這股動力上升。 日圓因美元走低而微升,商品交易顧問的美元兌日圓持倉及短期日本國債持倉有所減少。年底前的獲利回吐可能帶來短期不利因素。此外,在第二季強勁增長後,日本經濟在第三季出現收縮。雖然外國投資者在2023年領升,但考慮到新的日本個人儲蓄(NISA)計劃將在2024年1月生效,國內散戶的參與度有望在2024年提升。 由於市場強烈憧憬明年減息,金價已突破歷史高位。儘管考慮到利率仍然高企,金價的升勢相對過高,但對中東推動去美元化的憂慮亦加強金價的上升動力。雖然黃金仍是對沖地緣政治風險的理想工具,但隨著波幅加劇,近期金價急升亦可能引發更大幅度的調整。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account