《大行報告》瑞銀升重農行(03618.HK)評級至「中性」 徽商銀行(03698.HK)評級「沽售」目標價降至2.03元
瑞銀發表研報,預測明年覆蓋內銀收入及撥備前經營利潤(PPOP)平均按年增長7.1%及7.5%,主要是來自於資產負債表擴張的推動,惟被淨利差收縮所部分抵銷。該行預計,2024財年貸款平均按年增長率將達到15%,同時由於收入增長及有充足的撥備覆蓋率提供緩衝,稅後純利預料平均按年增長9.2%。
地方政府融資平台(LGFV)所發行的地方債券可能迎來重組,瑞銀預測將為其覆蓋的內銀帶來約3至12個基點的淨利差負面影響。
考慮到較低的貸款利率,以及房地產市場與整體宏觀環境仍存在不確定性,瑞銀表示明年仍對內銀行業持防守性看法,看好LGFV和房地產貸款敞口較低的銀行,以及擁有較高比例零售貸款(特別是消費貸款)及較高撥備覆蓋率的內銀,同時亦預期投資者明年會更重視股息回報。
瑞銀將重慶農商銀行(03618.HK)H股投資評級從「沽售」上調至「中性」,目標價由2.5元升至3.01元,另外維持徽商銀行(03698.HK)的「沽售」評級,目標價由2.3元降至2.03元。
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