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瑞銀汪濤維持對明年中國經濟增長放緩至4.4%預測
阿思達克 12-14 15:44
中央經濟工作會議指出要增強宏觀政策取向一致性,把非經濟性政策納入宏觀政策取向一致性評估。瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,市場和一些專家預計中央會再次將明年經濟增長目標設定在5%左右,從而穩定市場預期,但考慮到經濟面臨的種種挑戰和較穩溫和的政策組合,瑞銀認為實現該目標有一定難度,並維持對明年中國國內生產總值(GDP)增速將放緩至4.4%的預測。 汪濤指出,不同政府部門之間的政策協調或將有所改善,有助於提升政策效率,以及避免政策意外收緊。這可能表明針對部分行業的監管政策將持續正常化(如互聯網平台公司),政策環境會更為友好。 房地產市場方面,汪濤稱近期媒體報道的房地產寬鬆政策會取得更多進展。央行可能會增加抵押補充貸款(PSL)投放,支援房地產行業和平急兩用基建項目。總體而言, 明年房地產活動跌幅將較今年有所收窄,因此對經濟增長的拖累有所減弱。
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