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美聯儲維持利率不變 中銀香港:明年減息機會增強
阿思達克 12-14 11:35
美聯儲宣布維持利率不變,這與市場預期一致。中銀香港私人銀行副總經理陳衛全認為,是次議息結果進一步確認了明年貨幣政策的轉向,並有機會影響市場對於明年美聯儲減息的機會率和時間點的評估,對風險資產的估值可能有利。 陳衛全認為,是次會議較為重要是美聯儲更新了利率點陣圖,最新顯示今年底聯邦基金利率中位數為 5.4%,較9月份時的點陣圖預測為低;而預計明年底該利率中位數將下降至4.6%,亦較9月份預測的5.6%為低。這同時反映了預計到明年底,美聯儲將可能減息75個點子,幅度大於上次點陣圖的預測。 陳衛全指,雖然目前金融市場高度預期美國經濟可能將軟著陸,但投資者需要考慮未來的經濟走向以配合投資方向。現時利率期貨市場價格反映美聯儲最快可能於明年第一季度末開始減息,故投資者屆時應留意美聯儲減息的原因及步伐,是屬於通脹回落至央行的目標水平後的緩慢減息,或是面臨重大風險事件而作出的快速降息行動。 他指,如屬前者,就可理解為軟著陸,對環球風險資產估值較為正面;如屬後者,則可能是硬著陸,投資者應注意避險。所以,未來經濟走向仍存在各種變數,投資者應未雨綢繆並保持靈活性以應對不同市況。(ca/k) ~
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