《大行報告》瑞銀升小米(01810.HK)目標價至18元 技術差異化維持高端滲透率
瑞銀發表報告指出,根據該行對消費者智能手機的調查,全球12個月購買意欲大致穩定在39%,較第二季的41%按季略為下降。當中,中國消費者購買意欲按年顯著上升至59%,相對於去年第四季為51%,今年第二季為62%。全球預期更換手機周期小幅增長至2.48年,但中國情況則有所收窄。該行對中國智能手機需求保持正面。
此外,該行對今明兩年全球智能手機出貨量預測略為調整至11.5億及11.9億部,按年跌4%與升3%。該行料復甦情況將持續至明年以後,料2025年出貨量按年增長2%至12.1億部。
該行認為,小米(01810.HK)技術差異化維持高端滲透率,其高端智能手機策略和執行符合中國向中高端市場轉變的購買趨勢。除了其HyperOS和家庭物聯網生態系統的差異化外,該行指小米於高端智能手機(如小米14)上採用的愈來愈多自主開發技術,相信公司可繼續獲得高端市場份額。另預期,小米全球市佔率將於2025年升至14%,相對於今年低於13%;高端銷量將上升至15%,相對於去年低於12%。而更高的滲透率及高端手機規模將支持長期毛利率達13%至15%水平。
最後,該行料小米將於明年第二季,成為首家擁有智能手機、家庭物聯網和智能電動車的消費品牌,將是一項重大成就。對公司目標價由16元上調至18元,維持「買入」評級。
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