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凱基亞洲:明年恆指目標19,260點 料中國最終經濟增長4.9%
凱基亞洲投資策略部主管溫傑指,展望明年,預期恆指目標19,260點,如恆指最差重見7.3倍市盈率,對應恆指目標價14,500 點。他看好加息後期受惠股,包括騰訊(00700.HK)、快手(01024.HK)、百度(09888.HK);行業景氣度回升受益股,包括申洲國際(02313.HK)、銀娛(00037.HK)、聯想(00992.HK);穩中求勝股,包括中移動(00941.HK)及SPDR金ETF(02840.HK)。 中國方面,展望將來,雖然受累疫情後的「疤痕效應」,居民的消費意願持續偏弱,但明年內地零售銷售有望改善,樂觀情況下,全年升幅約6%,惟料房地產投資仍受壓,整體固投按年增長只能加快至 4.4%水平。綜合上述分析,他估計,中央會把明年經濟增長預期目標設置為4.5%至5%區間,而最終經濟增長率則為4.9%。他料明年年初仍有全面降準,政策將集中於上半年發力。 他表示,由於美國經濟或於明年放緩,而利息暫時仍然高企,估計資本市場繼續波動。他預計中央將加推政策以穩定經濟表現,估值偏低的港股具投資機會。策略上,投資者應專注於盈利能見度高的股份,並於合理估值水平買進,趁回調吸納而不高追是部署上的重中之重。 他指,雖然近月中美互動有所回暖,但美國對中國遏制的態勢其實沒有出現根本性的改變。由於美國總統大選將於明年11月舉行,隨著美國進入選舉期,不排除部分候選人會透過攻擊中國以撈取政治資本。對投資者而言,中美關係及地緣政局變化均需留意,兩者都有機會成為明年港股市場的灰犀牛。
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