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惠譽:監管措施支持中資保險公司明年優質增長和底層信用基本面向好
惠譽評級表示,2024年中資壽與險非壽險產業的信用前景展望均爲中性,這是受惠於修改後的監管措施將支持中資保險公司2024年優質增長和底層信用基本面向好。不過,非壽險業的自然巨災風險和壽險業的資產風險仍是產業信用的主要的薄弱點,可能會削弱保險公司的盈餘增長。 惠譽預期,受惠於今年9月監管修改計算償付能力充足率的最低資本要求,保險公司的資本壓力將有所緩解。然而,惠譽認爲,對於採取積極投資策略或業務擴張速度超過盈餘增速的保險公司而言,資本補充不可避免。 報告指,明年壽險和非壽險產業的重心在於提升增長品質。壽險業監管收緊和產品轉型將使產業增長放緩。壽險業銀保通路新規將改善產品的利潤率,但銷售渠道多元化程度較低的保險公司的競爭力將會下降。儘管監管措施將繼續帶動對非車險的需求,但非壽險保費增長顯着提速的可能性不大。政府提振汽車消費的措施將支持車險保費。惠譽預期,壽險業盈利將視乎投資報酬。雖然今年8月下調傳統壽險產品預定利率後負債保證成本有所降低,但國內利率走勢和資本市場波動可能導致壽險業獲利低於預期。 規模和核保複雜程度仍會是明年非壽險業獲利的主要決定因素。規模優勢將協助大型保險公司維持利潤率。惠譽預期,小型保險公司的核保績效將持續波動,因爲其中許多公司仍處於搭建非車險業務組合的階段。巨災風險相關賠償仍將威脅經營的穩定。
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