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《大行報告》富瑞料本港住宅樓價明年大致保持穩定 發展商中看好恆地(00012.HK)
富瑞發表報告分析本港及內地樓市。報告指,本港樓價指數CCL年初至今下跌5%,雖然下調印花稅令成交量溫和回升,但利率高企及經濟復甦緩慢限制樓市表現。展望明年,按揭利率仍然壓抑買家承擔能力,不過在專才計劃及家庭分支的需求下,供求動力相對健康,本地首批屋苑逐步老化,亦推動新的資產置換周期,刺激樓市需求,預期明年樓價大致穩定,相信市場估計再跌10%至15%屬過份悲觀,維持偏好恆地(00012.HK),因為息率具防守性,而且持有大量農地儲備及市區重建項目。 報告又指,收租股租金增長緩慢、重新投資的需求增加,零售資產面對鄰近地區的競爭;寫字樓前景仍然艱難,特別是次級區域仍有大量供應,對租金造成壓力。收租股中偏好領展(00823.HK),因為公司資產老化的風險較少。 內地樓市方面﹐該行認為,一線城市會有更多政策支持,至於金融機構如何執行支援仍是關注重點,若果政策支持大過市場預期、例如金額超過3萬億元人民幣,將會令樓市穩定。國營房企銷售跑出的情況持續至明年,市場競爭緩和,對毛利率及盈利構成支持,仍然認為中海外(00688.HK)及華潤置地(01109.HK)吸引,因為兩者擁有豐富的項目,屬市場整合者。(cy/u) ~
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