《大行報告》匯豐研究降嗶哩嗶哩-W(09626.HK)目標價至99.84元 明年有望收支平衡為驅動因素
匯豐研究發表報告指,嗶哩嗶哩-W(09626.HK)的遊戲業務前景預計仍然低迷,並會拖累集團收入。該行認為,遊戲業務復甦受到多個因素阻礙,包括在內地被暫停的《賽馬娘Pretty Derby》可供恢復下載的時間存在不確定性、自研遊戲產能下降及競爭等。不過,該行相信集團的廣告和直播業務增長將保持相對彈性。廣告收入將繼續以快於產業的速度增長。另外,直播DAU滲透率和付費比例仍有改進空間。該行估計,今年第三季嗶哩嗶哩的支付率為1.6%,而快手(01024.HK)的支付率為8.6%。
該行將嗶哩嗶哩2023至25年的整體收入預測削減1至7%,主要是由於其較低的遊戲業務預測。在盈利能力方面,集團的目標是透過提高各細分市場的毛利率、更嚴格的銷售管理支出及精簡一般管理費用和研發人員人數,在明年下半年實現盈虧平衡。該行將其2024至25年非通用會計準則淨利潤率預測提高0.2至0.3%,美股目標價由15.5美元下調至12.8美元,港股目標價由120.9元降至99.84元,維持「持有」評級。
該行提到,嗶哩嗶哩第三季收入大致符合市場預期,惟較匯豐研究預測低2%。不過,其非通用會計準則盈利則同時遜於市場及該行預期。集團對今年的收入指引下調至225億元人民幣,較市場預期低2%。
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