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《大行報告》富瑞降贛鋒鋰業(01772.HK)及天齊鋰業(09696.HK)評級至「跑輸大市」 劈目標價
富瑞發表報告,預期短期內鋰價進一步調整,將贛鋒鋰業(01772.HK)及天齊鋰業(09696.HK)的評級由「買入」下調至「跑輸大市」,並大削兩者目標價,當中贛鋒目標價由79.65元下調78%至17.33元;天齊目標價由78元下調59%至32元。 報告指,內地碳酸鋰價格由年初每噸50萬元人民幣,大跌至11月底的12萬元人民幣,跌幅75%,今年中出現的價格復甦只屬短暫。內地電池需求仍然強勁,不過鋰需求受到供應鏈去庫存影響,例如寧德時代(300750.SZ)的庫存周期由去年底的100日,跌至第三季的50至60日,估計明年至2027年鋰市場出現大約3%的供應過剩,供求趨向平衡。 該行預期,短期內鋰價進一步調整,因為供應緊張的情況緩和,鋰化合物價格下跌,推低鋰精礦單位價格,直至礦商收緊供應,估計明年第四季碳酸鋰價跌至每噸9萬元人民幣,全年平均價格每噸10萬元人民幣,長遠只有溫和復甦。 富瑞將今年至2025年三年期間,天齊鋰業的盈利預測分別下調51%、28%及51%;贛鋒鋰業的盈利預測分別下調69%、69%及75%。(cy/w) ~
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