《大行報告》大摩料市場下調中資股盈測趨勢延至明年首季 對MSCI中國指數保持謹慎
摩根士丹利發表中國市場策略報告,據MSCI中國指數及成份股及A股企業公布今年第三季盈利按季轉弱,其中MSCI中國指數企業上季表現錄自2018年以來最差,部份互聯網企業業績優預期,除了部份耐用消費品股季績優預期外,其他行業板塊的企業大多業績遜於預期,該行指證券業的盈利修正幅度仍處於負值範圍內,料下調趨勢將會延續至今年年底甚至明年首季。
該行指,MSCI中國指數約30%企業季內盈利遜於市場預期,產業觀察上,網路公司持續成為亮點,領漲有拼多多(PDD.US)、騰訊(00700.HK)和網易-S(09999.HK),相關公司上季透過強勁的銷售及利潤率擴張,令淨利潤表現超出市場預期。
就MSCI中國指數層面方面,大摩表示對指數保持相對謹慎,預計市場將會進一步下調企業盈利預測,估計11月連續增長可能放緩,此是基於料基礎設施的財政刺激減弱以及旅行支出疲軟,並維持相對謹慎的立場,短期內在指數層面對中國市場給予「與大市同步」看法。(wl/cy)
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