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《內地樓市》惠譽:中資房企融資支持新政尚不能促成地產行業拐點
評級機構惠譽表示,中國政府擬向數家規模房企提供融資支持並改善一些大型民營房企融資渠道的計劃繼續釋放政府穩定房地產市場的政策信號,且近期或出台更多直接支持舉措。 惠譽指,若來自部分銀行的新增貸款支持及政府的其他直接干預措施能夠重振市場對仍陷困境的房地產行業的信心,進而予以房企尤其是民營房更多時間來適應新的市場發展趨勢,則可能有助緩釋銀行現有房地產開發貸款中的資產質量風險。 近期有媒體報道稱,中國中央政府正在擬定50家房企融資白名單,用於指導銀行擴大對這些房企的融資支持。報道還指出,政府明確要求銀行提高投向房地產行業的貸款增速,並在授信標準上對國有房企和民營房企一視同仁。 惠譽指,銀行實際提供的支持力度存在不確定性。鑒於這並非政府近年來首次要求銀行加大對房企的信貸支持力度,惠譽認為此次政策實際落地效果將取決於銀行的執行力度。過去兩個季度,中資銀行的房地產開發貸款增長依舊疲軟,表明銀行繼續收緊對新增房地產開發貸款的授信標準,以及行業新房開工仍然低迷。 惠譽的基準情形仍然是,銀行對向抵押品不足尤其是由非國有房企承建的項目新增信貸支持的意願較弱。因此,即使在可能出台的政策要求下,惠譽預計銀行的新增地產貸款仍將具有高度選擇性除非政府表示更明確的支持態度,如萬科的情況深圳市政府承諾將在必要時為其提供支持。 此外,目前亦尚不明確正在擬定的白名單中是否將納入已出現流動性風險的民營房企。若此類房企在列,則提供新增支持的銀行的內在信用狀況將受到負面影響。不過惠譽認為,在沒有更為明確的政府支持背景下,這些受困房企獲得大規模銀行信貸的可能性較低。
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