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瑞銀料明年第二季至下半年或見內房復甦
阿思達克 11-28 12:32
瑞銀財富管理投資總監辦公室發表報告指,美國經濟歷經今年的強勁表現之後,明年很可能會放緩,但仍將實現正增長。歐洲經濟增長仍將保持低迷,中國增長則會進入增速放緩但增長質量可望改善的「新常態」。 鑒於明年利率料將下行,瑞銀指,投資者應限制總體現金頭寸,並善用各種機會優化投資回報,包括定期存款、階梯式債券與結構性產品。另外,優質債券應能為投資者帶來收益率及資本增值,而資產負債表穩健且盈利能力較強的優質公司,最有希望在增長疲軟的環境下保持盈利。 瑞銀財富管理投資總監辦公室亞太區投資總監及宏觀經濟主管胡一帆預計,明年中國將設定年度經濟增長目標為5%,明年美國經濟增長料較今年減半,經濟分化情況支持人民幣升值,加上近期人行預期人民幣保持在合理均值區間,因此預料明年人民幣走勢區間波動,及較具升值空間。 對於近期多次傳出內房傳聞如「融資白名單」等,瑞銀財富管理投資總監辦公室大中華區股票主管李智穎認為,內地由9月開始有不同房地產支持政策出台,雖然目前無法確認是否已有個別內房商獲銀行特別安排,但相信內地政府已明確支持房地產市場穩定下來。 她預計,明年第二季至下半年會見到內房出現復甦走勢,期間表現會較波動。她又指,目前不建議投資房地產債券或房地產股票,反而可以透過投資家電或房地產中介公司股票,藉此受惠交樓加快和成交增加。
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