惠譽料明年中國車市競爭白熱化 行業格局風雲變幻
惠譽評級中國企業研究董事楊菁預期,明年中國車市競爭白熱化,行業格局風雲變幻,而合資車企在電動化智能化浪潮下將走向分化。
楊菁估計明年內地車市整體需求按年持平或小幅上升,至於新能源車滲透率料進一步上升至42%,銷量增速超過20%。包括增程式的插電混動將為電動化主要推動力,但該市場競爭將加劇。而純電動市場進入個性化競爭階段,車企尋求高溢價細分市場。
此外,楊菁指新能源汽車政策支持穩定,燃油車穩消費政策料聚焦混動車型。燃油車、新能源車、二手車著重爭奪首購人群,下沈市場競爭加劇。智駕車型供給增加或將刺激換購需求。出租網約車市場或有助部分品牌提振銷量,但長期需關注品牌健康度。
合資車企方面,楊菁料合資車企發力電動化,轉型期在華策略或有分歧。出口與代工或有助於消化部分合資冗余產能。銷量與盈利並重,然而業績表現或持續承壓。另料國際車企對中國新能源汽車產業鏈投資與合作進一步增加。
楊菁預料,中國汽車出口增速料將放緩,出口市場或出現結構性變化。歐盟反補貼調查持續發酵,對部分中資車企影響較大。汽車及產業鏈企業出海建廠步伐將進一步加快。
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