惠譽:內房市場步入緩慢下行新常態 明年銷售降幅收窄至最多5%
惠譽認為本輪的產業下行週期和以往有著本質上的差異。首先,城鎮人均住宅面積從一直增長,現階段的需求尤其是剛需較10年前發生了明顯的變化;其次,居民槓桿率卻從2014年的35%左右上升到現在的62%左右,加上目前的經濟大環境,居民進一步提高槓桿的意願有限;再次,政策的基調完全不同,現時重點在於「穩」。惠譽認為房地產市場不會再像前兩輪週期有明顯反彈,而是會步入一個緩慢下行的新常態。
惠譽預期,明年中國房地產市場銷售額將持續下降,但降幅將縮小至0至5%。中國房地產行業的分化表現或將持續,這體現在城市的分化表現和房地產開發商的分化表現。基於政策持續放鬆的預期,經濟基礎較好、人口持續淨流入且有產業支撐的區域和城市或於未來12個月逐步趨穩,而低線城市則需要較長時間來消化現有庫存。另一方面,國有企業或將持續受惠於更強的購屋人信心,以及融資管道的暢通和多樣性。
政策端方面,惠譽預期中國政府將持續高頻次推出支持政策,堅定以「穩」為目標。在融資方面,政府將持續支持正常經營房企合理的銀行貸款、債務催收、股權融資,但金融機構的參與意願有待觀察。
惠譽指,銷售表現仍是房企信用狀況最重要的驅動,整體來看,民營房企的銷售表現更容易受到市場情緒的影響。目前惠譽在評的民營只有一間是負面展望,其他都是穩定展望,代表在未來的12個月,料公司的信用風險可控。
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