《大行報告》匯豐研究下調恆指明年底目標至19,890點 明年焦點股薦潤地及快手等
匯豐環球研究發表亞洲市場策略報告,全球宏觀經濟發展可成亞洲市場推動力,特別是如果中國經濟復甦的話,該行料中國今年及明年GDP增長各為5.2%及4.9%,估計亞洲股市明年潛在上漲15%,該行在區內予中國內地、印度、印尼及泰國市場均予「增持」看法,在中國內地市場方面,下調富時中國指數2024年年底目標預測,由26,070降至24,800點。
該行予香港市場「中性」看法,下調恆指2024年年底目標預測,由原來21,260點降至19,890點;降國指2024年年底目標預測,由原來7,600點降至7,190點。
匯豐環球研究表示,對中資H股設下兩個情境預測,第一個的「悲觀」情境下每股盈利無增長,估值回落至2022年10月的低點,意味著較目前水平下跌15%;第二個「樂觀」情境下,假設增長達16%,估值回到過去五年平均值12倍,意味著上漲空間為45%。該行指為每種情況分配50%的機率。
該行分析師對明年的最佳想法集中在今年遭受重創的科技股或復甦和進步的投資主題,挑選15隻亞洲焦點投資股份,本港上市包括華潤置地(01109.HK)、中國電力(02380.HK)及快手-W(01024.HK),各予目標價47.9元、4.2元及88元,還包括瀾起科技(688008.SH)、恆瑞醫藥(600276.SH)及台積電(2330.TW)等。(wl/k)
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