研報掘金|招商證券:維持特步“增持”評級 目標價下調至8.9港元
招商證券國際下調特步目標價13.6%,從10.3港元至8.9港元。下調對該公司2023和2024財年每股盈利預測12.2%和9.6%,預計該公司從2023至2025財年每股盈測年複合增長率為30%,維持“增持”評級。招商證券國際指,特步雙十一零售流水增長低於預期。在所有電子商務平台上,主品牌的流水年增了高單位數百分點。其中,Saucony品牌同比增98%,Merrell 品牌同比增101%。儘管主品牌的增長高於行業平均水平的中單位數百分點,但仍低於預期。增速低於預期的原因包括去年雙十一購物節的基數相對較高,以及整體消費支出放緩。由於特步的一個關鍵目標是清理舊庫存,零售折扣同比增3-4個百分點。 儘管如此,庫存問題已經基本解決,預計到2023財年末,庫銷比應該處於健康的4-4.5個月水平,而其中大部分是新庫存。 特步預計目前的庫存水平不會對2024財年的折扣率帶來壓力。招商證券國際又指,鑑於零售流水低於預期,特步目前預計其2023財年營收及淨利潤均將同比增長約10%。 相較於先前2023財年營收增長指引15%-20%,隨着毛利率的擴張,淨利潤增長將高於營收增長。特步對2024財年持謹慎樂觀態度,目前預計零售流水將同比增15%。然而,管理層也表示,如果經濟狀況恢復正常,零售流水增長可能達到同比25%。
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