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《大行報告》摩通:內地10月社融增量遜預期 四大內銀盈利增長較同業穩定
摩根大通發表研究報告指,內地10月社會融資規模(TSF)增量遜預期;票據貼現佔新增貸款的43%,顯示優質貸款需求不足。另外,宏觀復甦動力不穩定,M1-M2貨幣供應增速差距擴大,PMI數據及PPI通縮壓力減弱,加上居民投資情緒依然疲軟,共同基金和理財產品發行數據按月下降。 不過,該行提到,政府融資仍處於高位,10月地方政府再融資債發行1.01萬億元人民幣,有助暫時緩解地方政府融資平台(LGFV)的還款壓力。在10月TSF疲軟的背景下,該行預計第四季和明年內銀收入增長將持續受壓,但四大內地銀行與同行相比,盈利增長相對穩定。因此更看好四大內銀,即農行(01288.HK)、中行(03988.HK)、建行(00939.HK)和工行(01398.HK)。
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