瑞銀汪濤:料明年內地實際GDP增速放緩至4.4% 內房新開工或由2025年年中起回升
瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤認為,明年中國消費和服務業應可以延續疫後復甦趨勢,超額儲蓄小幅釋放也有一定幫助。出口會有邊際改善。雖然美國經濟增長或有所放緩,但全球科技周期應可以觸底反彈。此外,財政政策可能溫和擴張,從而提振整體經濟增長,不過基建投資增速或有所放緩。
房地產市場方面,汪濤預計明年全年房地產銷售面積將下降5%,新開工將下降10%,房地產投資將下降5%,跌幅均少於今年。因此明年房地產下行對GDP增長的拖累將從今年的1.5至2個百分點收窄至1至1.5個百分點,汪濤預計房地產新開工將從2025年年中起開始回升。
汪濤表示,在基準情景下,預計房地產活動下行會抑制投資活動和消費者信心,明年中國實際GDP增速將放緩至4.4%,預計CPI增速可能提高至1.2%,預計中國經濟增速將在2025年回升至4.6%。隨著美元走弱,預計人民幣兌美元匯率在2024至2025年末將逐步升值至約7.15及7。
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