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《大行報告》匯豐研究:新資本規定利好大型內銀 喜愛中行(03988.HK)及交行(03328.HK)
內地明年起實施《商業銀行資本管理辦法》,按照銀行的規模及業務複雜程度,劃分不同的資本監管方案。匯豐研究發表報告指,新資本要求對大型銀行較有利,當中工行(01398.HK)、建行(00939.HK)、農行(01288.HK)、中行(03988.HK)、交行(03328.HK)、招行(03968.HK)將會受惠。不過部分銀行將會受到負面影響。 報告指,在內銀的第三季業績期,銀行對新資本要求提出不同的指引,當中四大內銀認為對備考普通股權一級資本比率(CET1)的影響溫和正面,主要因為相關銀行在住宅按揭持有較大敞口,以及在內部評等法(IRB)下較為受惠。不過股份制銀行的看法較不樂觀,因為這些銀行持有較大比重的財富管理及表外項目。 該行認為,在基本情境下,採用IRB準則的銀行,一級資本比率將會輕微受惠,而股份制銀行面對的不確定性增加。在該行覆蓋的內銀股當中,偏好中行及交行H股,兩者評級為「買入」,主要因為撥備前盈利增長較快,以及有彈性的貸款損失儲備;最不看好的為郵儲銀行H股(01658.HK)及A股(601658.SH)、民生銀行H股(01988.HK)及A股(600016.SH) ,因為兩間銀行的盈利對淨息差壓力較為敏感,而且一級資本比率低於同業。
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