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《大行報告》天風證券料理想汽車(02015.HK)本季月銷量可衝擊4萬輛 與華為問界非零和競爭
天風證券發表報告指出,持續看好理想汽車(02015.HK)第四季衝刺4萬輛月銷,根據產能與訂單情況判斷,年底或有望衝刺4.5萬的月銷量;年底重點為MEGA發布會和通勤NOA推進情況。 該行指出,理想於第四季另一個核心關注點為其首個純電平台車型MEGA預計年底發布,定價預計在50萬元人民幣以上,目前MEGA外觀圖已官宣,整體外觀設計相較傳統MPV車型來說變化極大,具備非常高的辨識度;車型採用類似火車頭/子彈的流線式設計,且李想在微博官宣爆料時特意提及風阻系數,因此該行判斷其可能具備較低風阻系數以及較高的電效率以支持其純電車型的續航能力。 理想的野心是將MEGA打造成50萬以上銷量第一的產品(對應月銷超過1萬),該行樂觀判斷若MEGA能在純電能力、大空間、智能化等方面均做出突破,產品力持續引領市場,月銷量估計能達到至少5,000至8,000輛。 對於近期理想面臨大波動調整,該行認為核心原因或來自華為問界新產品的競爭,理想第三季若如該行預期單車利潤有所下滑,該行判斷市場或過度負面解讀下滑原因, 所以後續估值或仍有波動。但該行再次強調理想和華為是正和博弈的競爭,仍具備大量來自燃油車市場的增量,共同搶佔BBA等高端合資品牌和傳統車企的份額。
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