《大行報告》大摩:李寧(02331.HK)CEO堅決肯定渠道庫存健康及減少出貨為優先措施 可能提振市場情緒
摩根士丹利發表報告指出,李寧(02331.HK)CEO堅決肯定渠道庫存健康,以及減少出貨為優先措施,可能提振市場情緒。管理層稱,明年目標與指導性削減無關,亦不涉及庫存或店面的大幅調整。
該行引述李寧管理層表示,公司渠道庫存健康,至年底或降至約4至4.5個月水平。雖然有些經銷商有5至6個月的庫存,但並無一家超過6個月。管理層認為不需額外為庫存撥備。從李寧上半年營運資金而言,該行認為經銷商亦沒有因為庫存過多而陷困。公司庫存周轉日數穩定於58日,應收賬款日數較低,為14日。
此外,李寧CEO否認最近有關高層變動的猜測。管理層確認減產是一項優先措施,反映公司在設定較低庫存目標方面的更高標準。對於第四季保留的庫存,公司不會進行減價促銷,反而計劃以合理的價格有序銷售該批產品,因為該批產品是受歡迎的新產品,只是之前因訂單多於現時需求而作庫存。
展望明年,該行引述李寧管理層指目前要提供指引還為時尚早,但公司將優先考慮業務品質,因此該行預期公司目標是經營利潤率有所改善,意味著銷售增長亦是非常重要的關鍵績效指標。未經授權銷售(串貨)方面,新的預防措施已準備就緒,料明年首季起有所改善,並於明年第四季基本解決。
此外,李寧管理層預期,至2028年的收入目標為500億元人民幣,意味收入年均複合增長率少於10%,平均淨利潤率達中十位數水平。另透露,公司於1、2線城市的大型門市開幕大部分於2021至2023年完成。 隨著更好的品牌地位和產品供應,公司將開始滲透低線城市。
該行對李寧目標價為51元,評級「增持」。
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