中銀香港:美債期限溢價上升 美國加息週期接近尾聲
美國聯邦儲備局一如市場所料,將聯邦基金利率維持於5.25%至5.50%區間。議息會議聲明指美國第三季經濟加速增長,就業增速雖然放緩但仍然強勁,而且通脹仍處於較高水平。美聯儲主席鮑威爾在記者會表示,美聯儲目前並沒有考慮和討論減息,金融條件的變化可能會對政策產生影響,但現時未能判斷美債收益率上升相當於加息多少。中銀香港(02388.HK)投資管理總經理王兆宗認為,美聯儲將有條件花更多時間觀察目前利率水平對經濟和物價的影響,從而調整貨幣政策步伐,現時談論減息為時尚早。
此外,議息會議聲明上添加了「金融狀況」一詞,指出金融市場和信貸狀況同時收緊可能會對經濟、招聘和通脹造成壓力,但影響程度尚未確定,美聯儲仍高度關注通脹風險,並將持續監測經濟因素對經濟前景的影響,致力將通脹率降至2%目標。如果出現影響實現目標的風險,當局會「適當」調整貨幣政策。王兆宗認為,美債期限溢價正在發生變化。
在供應方面,美國財政赤字高企、地緣政治的不穩定導致國防開支增加等原因,使財政部不得不增加國債發行量。與此同時,自2022年6月以來,美聯儲持續縮減資產負債表,加上日本央行調整殖利率控管(Yield Curve Control)政策,令美國國內及最大海外美債投資者的投資需求同時有所下降。在供求因素疊加的情況下,自9月以來,美國2年/10年國債收益率利差已上升超過50點子,導致金融環境有所收緊,或降低再度加息的必要性。
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