《大行報告》大和下調百勝中國(09987.HK)目標價至550元 評級「買入」
大和發表研究報告指,百勝中國(09987.HK)公布第三季業績後,股價昨日(1日)下跌13%。雖然集團收入僅遜於該行預期2%,但第三季淨利潤為2.44億美元,較市場預期低約8%。該行相信,集團因勞動力成本上升和暫時的緩解措施而面臨短期利潤壓力,但預計銷售槓桿和成本調整計劃的利好因素將自明年開始出現,而其長期增長前景將保持良好。該行建議投資者逢低收集。
該行提到,百勝中國管理層預計集團於今年可淨增1,400至1,600間店,並到2026年達到2萬間店。雖然業務自9月底以來需求疲軟,但仍維持今年同店銷售增長指引,並有信心達成2024至2026年銷售目標,即複合年增長率高個位數到11至13%、每股盈利複合年增長率雙位數的目標。在利潤率方面,儘管由於銷售去槓桿化可能更加明顯,今年第四季將繼續面臨壓力。不過,該行預計,隨著公司滲透到低線城市並繼續改善其門市組合,其餐廳利潤率將在2024至2025年期間擴大。
大和下調百勝中國2023至2025年的每股盈利預測11至15%,將目標價由603元降至550元,重申「買入」評級。
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