《本地樓市》美聯料全年私宅施工量及落成量偏低 現樓貨尾高企
市況未明,發展商起樓步伐放慢,加上新盤銷售放緩,導致樓市三項指標出現「兩低一高」的情況,即「施工量及落成量低、現樓貨尾高」。據房屋局今日(30日)公布最新「私人住宅一手市場供應」資料顯示,第三季施工量約3,200伙,按季大跌約46.7%;即使今年首三季累計錄1.15萬伙,並已超越去年全年的1.1萬伙水平,但比起前年2021年全年2.1萬伙仍少約46%,與2018及2019年逾1.8萬伙相比亦有一段差距,可見今年施工量屬近年偏低水平。
美聯物業首席分析師劉嘉輝指出,落成量方面,第三季落成量錄2,500個單位,按季顯著回升約2.1倍;但以今年首三季合計,落成量合共僅約1.01萬伙,只佔差估署全年預測近2萬伙的50.6%,相信因發展商建屋步伐放緩所致,並意味著第四季需要超過9,800伙落成才達標。按此估計,相信今年落成量未能達標之餘,與施工量同屬近年偏低水平。
反觀,今年現樓貨尾高企,第三季更回升至1.8萬伙,重返今年第一季水平,並創自2007年首季後約十六年新高;由於第三季樓市氣氛轉靜,除受加息影響外,本港銀行更上調新造拆息按揭的鎖息上限,加上當時市場觀望新一份《施政報告》或會為樓市撤辣或減辣,樓市觀望氣氛濃厚,新盤銷售放緩;與此同時,第三季落成量按季顯著增加,帶動第三季現樓貨尾回升,並處偏高水平。
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