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信銀國際卓亮:內地全年GDP增長料達5.3% 年底至明年初或再減息
阿思達克 10-27 16:15
中國第三季經濟表現勝預期,中信銀行(國際)首席經濟師卓亮預期,今年底至明年初當局仍有機會放寬貨幣政策,或再降準25個基點,而一年期LPR則有10個點子減息空間;憧憬去年低基數下今年第四季出口按年表現會逐步改善,內地首三季GDP增幅已達5.2%,全年經濟增長有望超越5%的官方目標,預測可達5.3%。 至於香港方面,他指出,旅遊業出現復甦,勞工市場暢旺,下半年經濟增長料較上半年明顯提升,第四季出口或因基數效應而改善預測,今年第三及第四季增幅料超過5%,全年預測達到4%以上。 卓亮又指,美國加息周期非常接近尾聲,港元利率進一步上升空間有限,在美國開始減息前料維持相對較高水平,至於港銀何時減息則要取決於屆時拆息是否出現明顯回落。雖然新一份《施政報告》提出調整樓市「辣招」,但他相信新措施對市場有長遠支持作用,惟短期內依然受利率左右,因此預期第四季樓價還會錄得單位數跌幅。
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