《大行報告》美銀證券:本月底金融政策會議或討論內房風險 若缺乏政策支持新屋銷售復甦可能放緩
美銀證券發表報告指,內地除一線城市外,大部分城市已放寬樓市限制措施,相信決策者會步向下一階段,推出非傳統措施以刺激房地產投資,例如建設資助性房屋,但相關措施對商品住房市場的影響較為不明確。本月底內地將召開金融政策會議,預期將會討論房地產行業的財務風險,若果沒有果斷的措施支持,估計11至12月新樓銷售復甦放緩。
該行偏好優質國營發展商,例如華潤置地(01109.HK)及中海外(00688.HK);中國金茂(00817.HK)執行能力較差,而碧桂園服務(06098.HK)利潤受壓,維持兩者「跑輸大市」評級。同時看好中國建築集團(601668.SH)及中國建築國際(03311.HK),預期兩者將會受惠公營住房加快建設。
該行指,內地在22個城市推出城中村改造計劃,在政策支持、融資渠道多元化、發展模式更具效益下,估計進度有望加快,預計帶動房地產投資增加3至4%,住宅動工增加6至8%,而該行覆蓋的內房中,具質素的發展商在相關城市有較多業務,例如潤地、萬科(02202.HK)及龍湖(00960.HK),預料將會從中受惠。
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