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《大行報告》建銀國際下調中燃(00384.HK)目標價至7.7元 關注現金流多於增長
阿思達克 10-27 10:57
建銀國際發表研究報告指,預計中燃(00384.HK)上半年業績將表現疲軟,核心盈利按年減26%至24億元,又認為淨利潤疲弱將會受到零售燃氣量持平、財務成本上升、聯營企業利潤疲軟及人民幣兌港元貶值5%等因素影響。在新接駁居民用戶放緩和人民幣貶值的情況下,該行預計上半年增值服務業務的毛利將僅增長中個位數。另外,由於更嚴格的營運資本控制和資本開支減少,營運現金流和自由現金流或會比去年同期大幅改善。 該行預期,在基數較低和季節性較強的情況下,集團的零售燃氣量增長將在下半年上升至高個位數,料今年冬季整體天然氣採購成本僅窄幅增長,且透過與石油公司的管道天然氣合約覆蓋住宅需求更高,將支持固定邊際利潤(dollar margin)超過每立方米0.5元人民幣,而此前僅為0.30元人民幣。該行預計,下半年集團銷售加快增長,加上利潤率按年錄得強勁反彈,都有助於公司下半年及全年的盈利恢復正增長。 該行表示,看好集團下半年盈利逐步改善,而且全年自由現金流快速改善,將關注現金流多於增長。該行將其2024至26財年的盈測分別下調8%、8%、9%,目標價由9.5元下調至7.7元,維持「中性」評級。
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