《大行報告》匯豐研究下調國壽(02628.HK)目標價至11元 降2023至25年壽險新業務價值預測
匯豐研究發表報告指,按中國企業會計準則,國壽(02628.HK)首三季壽險新業務價值按年增長14%,首年保費升22.1%。壽險代理人由2022財年的66.8萬人降1.2%至第三季末的66萬人。
報告引述國壽管理層預計集團將在明年實現新業務價值正增長,又料「開門紅」預售監管明年帶來輕微影響。管理層又會考慮是否需要改變今年的投資回報預期,這或會因保單風險折現率(RDR)變化而被部分抵銷。
該行表示,由於憂慮新業務價值增長的可持續性,及持續改善渠道和產品結構需時,維持集團H股「持有」評級,目標價由12元下調至11元。該行下調集團2023年淨利潤預測51%,主要是反映第三季較低的投資收益及較高減值開支。該行又調低對公司2023至25年各年壽險新業務價值預測介乎1%至2%。
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