《大行報告》瑞銀:中國增發1萬億國債 顯示中央決心未來幾季優先穩定經濟
中國今季將增發國債1萬億元人民幣(下同),支持防災、災後復甦及相關基建投資,全國財政赤字將由3.88萬億元,增至4.88萬億元,預計赤字率將由3%提高至3.8%左右。瑞銀發表報告指,相比在1998年、1999年及2000年上調全國財政赤字均於8月進行,而今次在10月尾進行,反映當局有決心維持未來幾季經濟穩定,該行早前估計今年餘下時間,內地會運用國債上限提供的空間,不過今次實際增發金額超出該行預期。
瑞銀認為,今次增發仍然是正面驚喜,預計赤字率3.8%高於一般的3%水平,甚至高於新冠疫情期間2020年的3.7%,清晰反映更積極主動財政政策的訊息,在地方政府收入疲弱、地方政府融資工具(LGFV)受限下,增發國債並下發予地方政府,有助紓緩地方政府財政壓力,支持相關公共投資。
報告指,當局增發國債後,由政策銀行提供新增信貸以支持基建的可能性減低,今次增發的時間亦不足以顯著改變第四季經濟增長,但可能支持明年初期的增長,估計當局會繼續推出支持措施,包括下調存款準備金率等。
該行維持中國今明兩年經濟增長分別5.2%及4.4%。據報當局將會召開(五年一度)金融工作會議、及12月舉行(每年一度)中央經濟工作會議,市場關注會否提到樓市支持措施、解決LGFV債務風險的計劃、以及明年宏觀政策安排。
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