《大行報告》里昂:青啤(00168.HK)發生品質事件 對整個行業非好消息
里昂發表研究報告指出,網上流傳影片顯示,上週五(20日)有身穿青啤(00168.HK)制服的工人,在放置釀製啤酒原料倉內小便,公司表示已報警並封存有關批次麥芽。目前尚未提出任何指控。
該行預期,即使考慮到麥芽成本,廢棄該批麥芽對青啤財務影響較小。然而,受品質事件影響,消費者短期內或對訂購青啤時會猶豫不決,打擊需求。只有隨着時間的推移,相關問題帶來的負面影響才得以消退。該行維持對青啤的盈利預測,而相關預測本已較市場預期低11%至14%。
此外,該行認爲青啤的困境不會爲其他啤酒廠帶來好處,雖然對同業短期銷售增長有利,但行業已夠成熟,現有的分銷渠道設置無法輕易改變。消費者或將減少整體的啤酒飲用量,拖累產品均價及銷售增長放緩。該行維持對青啤「買入」評級,認爲品質事件應會加速公司在下行週期中追逐銷量增長,目標價72元。
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