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《大行報告》匯豐研究下調中石化(00386.HK)目標價至4.5元 首選中石油(00857.HK)
匯豐研究發表研報指,OPEC+減產的推動下,預期今年餘下時間石油供應將保持緊張,而中國市場需求仍然強勁,對未來中國石油需求前景持正面看法,指出雖然第三季因季節性因素而出現疲軟,但預期隨著出遊活動恢復,以及當局出台工業生產支持措施,預期石油需求會在第四季出現改善。 該行預期,今年全年石油需求將增長10%,明年料增長3%,而布蘭特原油價格預計在今年第四季會達到每桶約90美元,至2024年達約82.5美元,長期預測為75美元不變。但匯豐研究亦提醒,雖然需求表現強勁,但煉油毛利率(GRM)仍然受壓,預期第四季GRM會繼續走弱。 該行維持對中石油(00857.HK)及中海油(00883.HK)H股的「買入」評級,當中首選為中石油,看好其盈利及自由現金流前景具可見性,目標價由6.5元微升至6.6元,中海油目標價亦由14.9元升至15.6元。匯豐研究亦維持中石化(00386.HK)「持有」評級,以反映煉油利潤相關不確定性,但被庫存收益部分抵銷,目標價由4.8元降至4.5元。
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