瑞銀上調內地全年實際GDP增長預測至5.2%
瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,將內地全年實際GDP增長預測從4.8%上調至5.2%,明年實際GDP增長預測從4.2%上調至4.4%。
汪濤指,內地第三季經濟增長動能強於早前預期,高頻資料顯示9月和10月上半月主要城市房地產銷售小幅改善,得益於8月底以來房地產政策寬鬆加碼。
她提到,隨著全球科技週期觸底,實際出口量有望止跌企穩。同時,十一黃金周資料表明居民消費持續復甦。預計未來幾個月房地產活動將逐漸企穩, 明年房地產活動跌幅將收窄,對經濟增長的拖累將有所減弱。
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