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大新:內地9月CPI持平反映經濟動力弱 料全年通脹或僅1%以下
阿思達克 10-13 17:17
大新銀行經濟研究及投資策略部表示,內地9月消費物價意外持平,生產物價連續十二個月通縮,反映經濟動力仍然較弱。消費物價指數按年沒有變動,較8月的0.1%升幅略為放緩,低過市場預期的0.2%升幅。隨著去年同期通脹按年升幅由逾一年高位逐步回落,比較基數逐步降低下,預料未來數月整體通脹下行壓力略為紓緩,近期國際能源價格由低位回升亦有助穩定整體物價,大新銀行預期今年整體通脹或僅1%以下。 展望未來,內地製造業重返擴張水平,加上能源價格有所回穩,大新銀行估計生產物價指數短期內或將見底,惟全年或仍會錄得2%至3%通縮。 大新銀行認為,外圍製造業活動略為改善、出口新訂單略為回穩的情況下,內地整體出口表現或漸趨穩定。內地手機晶片製造取得進展,有望繼續紓緩高端技術產品及機電產品出口,不過美日等國繼續對華實施科技限制,或繼續不利未來高端技術產品進口。內地出口、製造業活動及消費表現均略有改善,加上內地近期加強對房地產及內需消費的支持政策,或有助穩定進口表現。
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