植耀輝:投資氣氛改善 恆指上望18,700點
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,香港近期經常出現極端天氣,大家亦因此而多了幾天假期。有假放當然好事,不過有時卻會打亂本身一些已安排之工作,部分地方更出現山泥傾瀉及道路水浸。這當然會帶來很多不便,但相比起其他地區,這些影響可謂微不足道。筆者所指就是以巴地區。從傳媒報道所見,衝突已造成重大人命傷亡。雙方之恩怨、誰是誰非並不能簡單用三言兩語可以說得清,只是希望事件可以盡快告一段落,皆因最受影響永遠都是一般平民百姓。
今次事件亦引發另一個討論,就是會否重演1970年代石油危機及滯脹風險。1973年中東為懲罰美國援助以色列,大幅減少石油生產,結果油價由3美元/桶升至年底11.65美元/桶。一旦油價抽升,對全球經濟肯定會帶來嚴重衝擊。當然,現時局面仍未演化到一發不可收拾地局,但即使中東再出招,對美國之影響亦肯定不及當年,理由在於美國對海外石油之依賴程度已有所滅少。1973年美國石油消費量約1,730萬桶/日,佔世界石油消費約30.2%,截至9月底止之石油消量則為1,915.7萬桶/日,佔世界石油消費之比例則跌至約兩成;產量方面,1973年之日均產量為921萬桶,現時產量則已逼近1,300萬桶,並已成為石油淨出口國(石油製品出口量減進口量)。當然,雖說佔比已有所減少,但若中東局勢惡化,則仍會對美國以至全球能源供應帶來相當衝擊。所以大家還須密切關注局勢變化。
至於港股方面,走勢似有所改善,連升六個交易日之餘,匯金增持四大內銀消息對港股與A股投資氣氛也有正面幫助。現時恆指已升破一短線下降軌阻力(約17,610點)以及挑戰50天線(18,240點),以走勢論確相當不俗,後市能否維持升勢,首要條件為A股持續有表現,以及有成交量配合。若氣氛持續有改善,則月內恆指有望進一步挑戰18,700點水平。下方則以20天線約17,700點為支持。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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恆指「6連升」 有力挑戰100天線
耀才研究部稱,港股昨日(12日)表現出色,受內地金融股及科技股帶動,恆指甫開市已突破18,200點,高開365點,最多更曾升近400點,高見18,290點。恆指最終收報18,238點,上升345點或1.9%,為連續第六個交易日上升,累積升幅達到1,042點;科指則升1.7%,收報4,019點,大市成交金額突破千億,達到1,011.2億元。遭匯金增持A股之四大行升幅介乎4%至6%,另科技及醫藥股均有好表現,網易(09999.HK)上升逾3%,藥明生物(02269.HK)升幅更達到6%。反觀早前之石油股現回吐,中石油(00857.HK)及中海油(00883.HK)分別下跌1.8%及1%。投資氣氛有所改善,加上A股造好,預期恆指有望延續升勢,並挑戰18,500點水平。
技術走勢方面,恆指繼早前升破10天及20天線後,昨日更一度突破50天線(18,240點),走勢進一步走強,除10天線有望升穿20天線外,MACD亦有所轉強,預期後市仍有望挑戰高位,首站先留意能否突破100天線亦即18,700點附近。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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