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《大行報告》里昂料本港樓價再跌17% 降恆地(00012.HK)評級至「跑贏大市」
里昂發表研究報告指出,長實集團(01113.HK)再次展現在市場低迷期間產生強勁銷售的能力,其於8月份推出的油塘親海(馬尺)II,每尺均價為1.49萬元,較鄰近的Peninsula East及曦臺分別低出12%及29%。集團同月將親海(馬尺)I的每尺均價調整至1.59萬元。公司兩次推盤均大受歡迎,親海(馬尺)II首輪發售的626伙沽清,而親海(馬尺)I首輪發售的219伙中亦已售出209伙。 該行認為,長實往往是市場疲弱期間首家減價的公司,其定價策略往往標誌著樓價周期的低位。回顧以往的樓市下行周期,如1997至1998年的亞洲金融風暴及2000至2003年的科網泡沫及沙士,樓價調整幅度均與長實減價幅度相似,然後觸底。該行相信其他發展商亦要提供類似的折扣(15%至20%)賣樓,否則否則銷售情況仍將令人失望。 此外,該行指本港住宅樓價自2021年8月高位以來已回調17%,在高利率和經濟復甦緩慢的情況下,預期樓價將進一步下跌17%,重回2016年中的水平。 該行另料房屋銷售和預售情況將放緩,為發展商的開發利潤及毛利帶來負面影響,認為包括新地(00016.HK)及新世界發展(00017.HK)在內的發展商削減股息風險較高。儘管10月25日即將發布的施政報告可能會帶來驚喜,但利率上升仍然是該行最關心的問題。該行將恆地(00012.HK)的評級由「買入」下調至「跑贏大市」(看另表)。
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