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《大行報告》大摩下調對本港地產股看法至「符預期」料明年住宅樓價跌5%至10% 降地產股目標價
摩根士丹利發表報告指,本港住宅樓市在疫情後復甦短暫,估計樓價今年跌3%後,明年再跌5%至10%,在美國利率上升、中國經濟增長放慢的情況下,對本地地產股的看法由「吸引」轉為「符合預期」,偏好低負債及持續收入強勁的地產商。 該行指,市場對港府本月25日公布的《施政報告》樂觀,但即使非本地居民置業印花稅由30%下調至15%,料本港樓市前景亦不會有太大改善,少數地產股估值吸引,但亦不足以推動股份跑出。 大摩偏好長實集團(01113.HK)、新地(00016.HK)及信置(00083.HK),認為長實及新地持續自由現金流收益率超過10%,即使住宅樓價及成交量下跌,現金流仍然穩定,長實及信置負債較低,有能力應付派息及回購。該行指,嘉里建設(00683.HK)及恆地(00012.HK)的持續收入較低,亦受利息開支高企影響。 該行將地產股目標價平均下調19%(詳見另文),以反映最新的樓價預測,估計行業資產淨值折讓亦由45%上調至50%,並將九倉(00004.HK)投資評級「增持」下調至「減持」,以映其基本因素疲弱及估值並不吸引。
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