景順:中國黃金週消費反彈不均 經濟或需更多時間達到正常化
景順亞太區(日本除外)環球市場策略師趙耀庭表示,雖然旅遊數據顯示中國家庭消費朝著正確的方向復甦,尤其是服務業方面,但房地產銷量不及預期。「雙速消費反彈」說明中國經濟正常化可能較早前預期需時更長。
市場曾廣泛預期國內旅遊業及消費將強勁反彈。據中國政府初步估計,假期期間的境內遊數量將較2019年疫情前水平增長13%,旅遊消費將增長5%。不過,旅遊業銷量普遍未能達致政府及私營部門的預期,他認為這是因為早前預期稍為過於樂觀。客觀而言,旅遊數據表現尚可,境內遊較2019年增長4.1%,旅遊消費僅增長1.5%。
房地產銷售方面,儘管政府已頒佈多項措施提振市場情緒,但有關國內一間規模最大的開發商可能違約的消息或會影響市場信心。
他表示,展望將來,隨著境外遊趨勢持續轉強,高收入家庭的家庭消費有望保持強勁。中等收入家庭的消費前景在很大程度上將取決於房地產市場前景。對於低收入家庭而言,消費前景則直接與就業及收入前景掛鉤,而這前景似乎有所好轉。他預計,為提振家庭情緒及房地產市場,當局或會提供更多政策支持,相信中國市場可能維持窄幅上落,直到增長趨勢持續走強或政府推出更多刺激措施。
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