醫藥板塊大爆發，多隻創新藥ETF大升3%
今日A股全線回暖，截至發稿，滬指升0.29%、深成指升0.59%，創業板指升、科創50均升1%。盤面上，CRO概念股、醫藥服務、減肥藥等升幅居前，其中百花醫藥、昭衍新藥、一字板升停。泰格醫藥、和元生物升超9%。
港股方面，CXO概念股全天強勢，昭衍新藥、康龍化成、泰格醫藥、藥明康德分別上升10%、9.8%、8.94%以及6.29%。
ETF方面多隻創新藥主題ETF今日升超3%，平安基金港股醫藥ETF、銀華基金港股通醫藥ETF、華天柏瑞基金滬港深創新藥ETF、廣發基金港股創新藥ETF、鵬華基金香港醫藥ETF分別上升3.98%、3.74%、3.67%以及3.78%。
今日醫藥板塊的再次爆發跟減肥藥行業有積極進展有關。消息面上，諾和諾德週二宣佈，GLP-1藥物Ozempic在一項預防2型糖尿病和慢性腎病患者腎損傷進展的Ⅲ期臨牀試驗中，已經達到提前結束試驗的預定指標。
另外，疫苗行業本週也有利好消息，智飛生物獲葛蘭素史克的帶皰疫苗中國代理權，基於智飛在中國內地銷售佈局以及其在HPV疫苗代理的表現，認為此次合作可望提升帶狀皰疹疫苗在國內的滲透率。
目前A股市場上有多隻醫藥主題相關的ETF，如中藥、創新藥、疫苗等細分主題。從相關醫藥ETF在9月的份額變化也可看出，資金在醫藥板塊反彈有逢高減持的操作，其中易方達醫藥ETF的份額在9月減少了9.14億份，但對創新藥主題的ETF青睞有加，其中廣發基金港股創新藥ETF、華夏基金恒生醫藥ETF的份額在9月分別增加了1.96億份和0.89億份。
拉長時間線來看，其實醫藥板塊從9月就開始了反彈，A股的醫藥生物板塊在9月的累計升幅是4.71%，是為數不多逆勢上升的板塊。
放到ETF的9月月度表現來看，醫藥主題的ETF也表現強勢。疫苗ETF基金、創新藥企ETF9月的升幅分別為6.84%、5.81%。
更值得引起注意的是，9月淨值增長TOP20的主動權益基金中，居然有11只醫藥主題的基金產品，9月的升幅位於7%-8%區間，顯而易見醫藥基金經理在9月逆風翻盤了。
回看整個醫藥板塊，經歷兩年多時間調整後，當前醫藥板塊處於估值、機構持倉歷史低位水平。
9月9日，國家衞健委醫療應急司司長郭燕紅在會議中指出，反腐要“集中突破，糾建並舉”、“不得隨意打擊醫務人員參加正規學術會議的積極性，不得隨意擴大集中整治工作範圍”。隨着醫藥領域的學術會議陸續恢復，創新藥相關的學術活動預計迎來有序恢復。
興業證券看好醫藥板塊在Q4的表現。一方面醫藥板塊潛在可期待創新藥談判、高值耗材集採等政策落地，另一方面創新藥板塊潛在有行業會議、出海進展等催化劑，此外估值切換也將為板塊帶來彈性空間。
交銀國際指，四季度，行業界將迎來多項催化劑，包括ESMO和醫保談判。在近期情緒波動後，當前港股醫藥板塊遠期市盈率已回落至2018年底/2019年初的底部以下，安全邊際極高，考慮到利空因素已基本出清，產業長期剛需清晰、高成長確定性強，預期港股醫藥板塊可望在4季度迎來反彈。
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