花旗(C.US)料美聯儲明年5月起減息6次 每次25點子
市場預期美國聯儲局今年內可能會再加息,但香港花旗銀行零售銀行業務主管李貴莊表示,美國加息周期接近尾聲的預期未變,該行分析師團隊預測,為避免當地就業市場出現大規模放緩,美聯儲將於2024年5月開始減息,料年內減息六次,每次25點子,至明年底息率將回落至4.25%。花旗指,投資者應把握息率見頂的機會作多元化資產配置,建議選取美國大型科技股份及高評級債券。
談及本港樓市,她指出現時按息高企加上一手單位供應較充俗,令租金平均回報率僅達約2.6%,屬負回報水平,預料要待本港實際按息回落至3%以下,才能吸引購買力重返樓市,目前該行對香港房地產市場仍持審慎看法。
港府10月25日將發表最新一份《施政報告》,李貴莊預料,當中有70%機率會取消香港居民買賣或轉讓非首置物業所徵收的額外15%雙倍印花稅,另有40%機率會延遲收取非本港居民置業的買家印花稅,只有5%機率會取消非港人置業的買家印花稅。
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