《大行報告》大摩:華潤醫藥(03320.HK)及國藥(01099.HK)估值見底 建議在業績期前建倉
摩根士丹利發表報告指,內地開展醫藥反貪腐後,據初步數據及企業管理層回應,8月份醫藥行業的採購活動明顯減慢,特別是資本設備及處方藥物,分銷商在9月已見部分改善,但關注重點是失去的需求在何等程度屬於非必需,還是只是推遲採購。市場普遍認為,國營分銷商第三季收入按年增長將較對上一季放緩,估計內地醫院處方藥市場,由第二季按年增長11%,放緩至第三季料只有中單位數增長。
該行認為,華潤醫藥(03320.HK)及上海醫藥(02607.HK)所受影響,較國藥控股(01099.HK)為小,因為兩者有一半盈利來自製造業務及其他附屬。雖然上半年行業增長較預期略慢,但國藥盈利仍有雙位數增長,主要受惠財務成本比率改善。
報告認為華潤醫藥及國藥估值見底,估值僅相當於預測今年市盈率分別7倍及6.7倍,建議在業績期前建倉,各予「增持」評級,目標價分別7.8元及30元。報告指兩企今年大概率達成純利雙位數增長,下行風險料有限。倘月度行業數據改善,在基本情境下該行料預測市盈率可擴至9倍。
大摩稱,特別是華潤醫藥,考慮製藥附屬前景改善,或令其預測未來一年市盈率可擴至10倍;華潤醫藥獲重新納入MSCI中國指數將持續擴大其投資者基礎。現時內地醫療保健板塊估值相當於預測未來一年市盈率21.5倍。
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